With the threats of military action against Iran from US and Israel still on the table; it seems that Europe has been given a last chance to try its hand at an internal pseudo-coup d’etats inside the Islamic regime in Tehran to make it “all good”. The plan is starting to go into full gear with the upcoming Assembly of Experts so-called “election” on December 15th; and with Khamenei, the Supreme leader’s ailing health and rumors of his eventual death within months, not years.

 With the focus of the free world on Iranian nuclear weapons ambitions after European hegemony of last quarter century over the Islamic Republic regime came to a screeching halt by the take over of Ahmadinejad in June 2005; Europe tries its hand again to turn back the clock and re-install its Euro-friendly clergy within the regime back into power in Tehran. The upcoming election of the Assembly of Experts and an ailing Supreme Leader are providing the right environment to deliver a blow to the radical elements within the regime, i.e. Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, and Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi who is a Supreme Leadership hopeful in the wings. Initially, Ahmadinejad's ambition appeared to be directed at winning a majority of the assembly thus holding a Damocles sword above the head of the incumbent "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei. Some had even suggested that an assembly controlled by the president's supporters would force Khamenei to resign on health grounds, appointing Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmadinejad's theological guru, as "Supreme Guide".

 If Europe is successful in this last ditch attempt to bring back the European faction of clergies, i.e., the likes of Khatami and Rafsanjani or their cohorts, into power; America and Israel could be temporarily appeased and a military confrontation with Iran may hence be averted.  

The recent student protests against the government of Ahmadinejad, including slogans of “Death to the Dictator” (meaning the Supreme Leader), and including the setting afire of Ahmadinejad’s picture in Polytechnic University right before his eyes as he was delivering a so-called speech should also be viewed in the same vein. The student protestors themselves may be under the firm belief that they are acting independently, but European hegemony which has had 25 years to infiltrate into every level of Islamic Republic’s system is surely the instigators behind these new provocations, and just in time for the Assembly of Experts so-called elections , too.

 But America’s acquiescence will depend on whether the “new” government in Tehran, after Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are neutralized, will immediately meet certain conditions, amongst those conditions are: an immediate freeze or suspension (for 5-10 years) of all Iran’s nuclear activities, a verifiable commitment of Iran to stop supporting Hezbollah and Hamas with money and arms, interfering in Iraq by fortifying the Shiite insurgence and the Mahdi Army of Al-Sadr; stopping its interference in Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Somalia in support of Islamic terrorists to destabilize the governments, and the revision of Iran’s constitution to abolish the Supreme Leader position (Velayat Faghih), as well as grant and guarantee more fundamental social, political freedoms and human rights to the Iranian people.

 In Tehran , for example, Muhammad Ghalibaf, the man who replaced Ahmadinejad as mayor of the capital, has decided to ally himself opposed to the president. Ghalibaf, one of the four candidates defeated by Ahmadinejad in the last presidential election may well be motivated by sour grapes. However, his defection for the radical Cino-Russian camp could help the reformist groups regain a place in the largest municipal government authority in the country. The Tehran Municipality could emerge as a bully pulpit for the president's many political foes. Some say that Ghalibaf must be watched as the next emerging coup leader in Tehran.

 To be sure, there are no guarantees that this plan will work. Europe may well fail in its bid to change the internal machinery of the regime and turn it back to the days when one of its own trainees, Khatami, was at the helms; but if EU does succeed in pulling such a feat again in Iran ; the result could change the whole political formula in the region. With financial, political, military, and spiritual support of Iran stopping, the Iraqi insurgence in the south of Iraq , Hezbollah in Lebanon , and radical Hamas could all eventually die a natural death from malnutrition. This will open the way for America to take control of Iraq and stabilize it in months, perhaps a year, and certainly in time for the next presidential election in 2008.

 Even Senator John McCain (R), the next presidential hopeful, has called for military option to be exercised on Iran while, in the same breath, talking about the need for America to “support the reformers” in Iran . This is a clear message to the Europeans that if McCain is the next president, He would expect the Europeans to do what they can now to change the regime from its current form to a more “moderate” form. Otherwise, McCain seems to imply in his statements, U.S. has to go to the next phase: military solution.

 If the European reform coup against Ahmadinejad and Khamenei succeeds, the obvious winners will be EU which will continue to enjoy multi-fold trade expansion with Tehran, and to some degree U.S. will be appeased if its conditions are met by the “new improved and moderate” Islamic Republic minus Supreme Leadership. And the obvious losers under such a scenario will of course be China , Russia , and oddly enough the Iranian people themselves since the change will not be a meaningful, genuine change eradicating the theocracy in favor of a secular democratic system of governance. But to be sure, the Islamic Republic will change its face, and the new lipstick-on-the-old-pig trick will mean a new lease on life for the Iranian regime, courtesy of EU.